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GBP/USD analysis: odds for a hard Brexit on the rise, Pound to keep falling
GBP/USD Current Price: 1.2635
Brexit Party topped a UK opinion poll for the first time ever.
UK's May Manufacturing PMI foreseen at 52.4 vs. The previous 53.1.
The Sterling remained under selling pressure amid UK's political turmoil, falling against the greenback to 1.2558, its lowest since last February, before profit-taking helped it bounce to settle in the 1.2630 region.
The GBP/USD pair resumed its decline this past week, following PM May's decision to step down, somehow assuming her failure to clinch a Brexit deal.
Chances of a hard-Brexit had been on the rise ever since, and UK politicians don't help to cool down such speculation.
On Sunday, an Opinioum poll showed that Nigel Farage´s Brexit Party came out on top for the first time ever.
Mr. Farage, In an interview with a local newspaper, called it a 'historic moment' and vowed to 'smash the two-party system.'
According to the same poll, Labour came second, while Tories ended in the third place.
Brexit Party to STORM Peterborough by-election: Shock graph shows Labour & Tories nowhere
PETERBOROUGH heavily backed Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party in last months European elections and this graph predicts voters will follow suit in next week’s by-election.
Pero si, seguramente vuelva al 1,10 del verano pasado o de los días postbrexit
Vaya campañita del presidente naranja de pelo... Menos mal q la valoración de su persona debe de ser de las mas bajas de todo europa, pq vaya postulado probrexit y contra el alcalde de londres (y contra la cnn y contra todo lo q no le interesa)
Como dije no hace mucho que pasara? f**k knows ... Hasta ahora todo me parece parte del sensacionalismo de la prensa etc... Yo solo se que la Mari tere dijeron en 2017 que la querían echar en junio pero no dijeron el anho!
Pound-to-Euro Exchange Rate Drops to Fresh Lows, but Lloyds Forecast Recovery by Year-end
- GBP/EUR exchange rate at 1.1279 on Tuesday
- Johnson takes lead in race to become next Prime Minister
- Lloyds say Sterling can recover back to 2019 highs over coming month
The front-runner to be Theresa May's replacement as Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, officially launched his campaign on Monday, confirming "we're out, deal or no deal" on October 31.
"If I get in we'll come out deal or no deal on October 31. We'll do that," Johnson said.
Johnson continues to add parliamentarians to his list of supporters with his tally standing at 42 while his nearest contender Jeremy Hunt has 32, Michael Gove has 29, Dominic Raab had 24, Sajid Javid has 17 and Matt Hancock has 12.
The odds of Johnson becoming the next Prime Minister have meanwhile fallen over the past 24 hours, with market aggregator Oddschecker showing odds have moved from 7/4 to 6/4.
We are seeing a 'no deal' Brexit premium being injected into Sterling: the currency suffered a sharp decline of 4.0% against the Euro over the course of May in a move that heightened fears that the GBP/EUR is on a concerted move lower.
GBP Price to Shrug off Shorter Odds on Corbyn as Next UK Prime Minister
The odds on Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the UK opposition Labour Party, becoming the next British Prime Minister have shortened yet Sterling remains firm.
This reinforces earlier indications that the traditional negative market response to a potential Labour government cannot be assumed.
According to the website oddschecker.com, the odds on Corbyn as the next UK PM have shortened to 5-1 at many of the bookies, roughly equal to former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, the Environment Secretary.
They are now the favorites, ahead of, Dominic Raab, a former Brexit Secretary who resigned from the government late last year and is now quoted at around 9-1 and Jeremy Hunt, the current Foreign Secretary, whose odds have drifted out to around 10-1.
No General Election is expected for now but if one is called and Labour leads in the polls, this analysis suggests that traders long of the Pound should think carefully before reversing their positions.
No hay nuevas elecciones planeadas y ya estamos hablando de que corbyn se va posicionando como favorito. Llevo tiempo diciéndolo sensacionalismo sensacionalismo sensacionalismo.